Implied probability = (- (Odds) / ((- (Odds)) + 100)Ĭonvert ‘plus’ moneyline odds into implied probability: This simple comparison requires you to convert the bookmaker’s odds into a winning percentage.Ĭonvert ‘minus’ moneyline odds to its implied probability: The more you understand that the probability implied by the odds doesn’t always match the actual probability of an outcome, the more you’re likely to beat your sportsbook in the long run. Like any commodity, betting lines are sold at different prices, and some are a much better deal than others. Understanding expected value is a bit tricky at first, but it is the key to knowing if you’re getting the right price for the bet. EV will tell you if the odds offered on a betting line match the actual probability that outcome will occur. That’s why most professional bettors obsess over the hunt for value bets.
But the truth is that sports betting is as much about math as it is about sports.
Many bettors get by without understanding expected value, focusing simply on picking winners and nothing else. Expected value is the mathematical foundation of any smart sports bet.Īfter you get past the basics of understanding point spreads and moneylines, and dive a little deeper into sports betting strategy, you’ll often hear people talking about expected value – EV, for short – and the perceived edge.
